prognosticators

groundhog dayIt’s Groundhog Day! The day that we look to a rodent to come out of a dark hole to tell us the weather forecast.

While it’s good fodder to fill up the morning zeitgeist every February 2, it’s temporal. People get a chuckle and go on living their lives of quiet desparation.

But why chuckle at the groundhog news story and then bite on the next one?

IRL and online networks are packed with pundits and prognosticators 365 days a year.

What will be the hot ad in the Super Bowl the ‘big’ game™ this Sunday? Who will win the actual game? Who will win the next election? What’s the best bet on your stock IPO?

These prophets and soothsayers appear as experts in their fields offering their own predictions of events. They backing those ideas with forecast models, statistics, and expertise. In reality, they’re all just looking at their own shadow and making their best guess.

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