A caveat before I begin this post – He who looks into the crystal ball…eats glass.
An updated forecast from JMP Securities says that online media will account for more than $1 of every $10 spent for advertising by 2010.
Mmmm…seems like you should go ahead and put together an online media buy for 2006-2010. Be ahead of the curve! But, I think you’d be wrong.
We’re used to looking at past indicators to gauge future perfomance. For example, take TV…
The smart company in the late 1940’s and early 50’s would have sunk all their ad money into TV as it was starting to explode. The problem is that with the exceptions of color, cable, and DVR…the basic TV model is still pretty much the same as it was in the 50’s…shows, advertising, primetime, etc. The advertising media buy that worked in 1958 still worked in 1988.
Now look at the Internet…Does today’s web look like the one in 2000?…or the one in 1995? While we’re moving (have moved) into Web2.0, I will venture to say that Web3.0 will come even faster.
The point is that you can no longer look at what has worked in the past for advertising and expect it to work in the future. But, that’s always been somewhat of a given.
Here’s the new truth for marketing. You can no longer look at what’s just starting to work now and expect it to work in the future. Largely, because “the future” is changing much faster than it used to.
In today’s marketing world, long term predictions are now useless.