Ain’t Gonna Be Banner Ads

A caveat before I begin this post – He who looks into the crystal ball…eats glass.

An updated forecast from JMP Securities says that online media will account for more than $1 of every $10 spent for advertising by 2010.

Mmmm…seems like you should go ahead and put together an online media buy for 2006-2010. Be ahead of the curve! But, I think you’d be wrong.

We’re used to looking at past indicators to gauge future perfomance. For example, take TV…
The smart company in the late 1940’s and early 50’s would have sunk all their ad money into TV as it was starting to explode. The problem is that with the exceptions of color, cable, and DVR…the basic TV model is still pretty much the same as it was in the 50’s…shows, advertising, primetime, etc. The advertising media buy that worked in 1958 still worked in 1988.

Now look at the Internet…Does today’s web look like the one in 2000?…or the one in 1995? While we’re moving (have moved) into Web2.0, I will venture to say that Web3.0 will come even faster.

The point is that you can no longer look at what has worked in the past for advertising and expect it to work in the future. But, that’s always been somewhat of a given.

Here’s the new truth for marketing. You can no longer look at what’s just starting to work now and expect it to work in the future. Largely, because “the future” is changing much faster than it used to.

In today’s marketing world, long term predictions are now useless.


Chris Houchens is a marketing raconteur & writer. Connect with him on Twitter or Facebook.

Tagged with: ,
2 comments on “Ain’t Gonna Be Banner Ads
  1. Rob Mattheu says:

    Actually, I think the biggest secret in marketing is that nothing is as changed as much as everyone says it is.

    I have a DVR, but I wouldn’t say that it has decreased my awareness of commercials any because I’m still watching my favorite stuff live and still see quick ads when I forward through the stuff I taped.

    I occasionally read banner ads, but usually only click on them when it involves somewhere I already shop or something I was already aware of. The “text ads” that people are so fond of touting are now becoming blind spots to me (and I would assume most people) as we learn to minimize the clutter. I suspect that much of the business from Google’s “Adsense” comes from people clicking through to help make the website money, not people actually interested in the ads, which would only seem to work for very specific searches.

  2. carey says:

    I occasionally like to revisit these predictions when the years are actually reached. Last year I looked at some of the predictions from 1999 and 2000 for the year 2005, and found consistently that analysts dramatically over-predict the size or speed of growth and change. Claims like these always give us something to talk about I suppose…